There is definitely much research going on into identifying biomarkers for progression of Barrett's and OAC. I get daily updates of all new research into GERD, Barrett's and OAC.
Just within the last few weeks, these papers have been pubished:
"Genome-wide association studies in oesophageal adenocarcinoma and Barrett's oesophagus: a large-scale meta-analysis" finding " meta-analysis identified nine new risk loci for Barrett's oesophagus and oesophageal adenocarcinoma and highlighted genes and cellular pathways likely to be implicated in disease development",
"Common Variants Confer Susceptibility to Barrett's Esophagus: Insights from the First Genome-Wide Association Studies." finding "Eight loci have been identified by the two genome-wide association studies of Barrett's esophagus that have been conducted"
"CYR61 and TAZ Upregulation and Focal Epithelial to Mesenchymal Transition May Be Early Predictors of Barrett's Esophagus Malignant Progression."
"hERG1 behaves as biomarker of progression to adenocarcinoma in Barrett's esophagus and can be exploited for a novel endoscopic surveillance."
We are getting closer to being abe to identify with genetic fingerprinting those most at risk of develoment of Barrett's and particularly of progression to Oesophageal AdenoCarcinoma.
It is now widely thought, though not possible to prove, that all cases of OAC started as Barrett's.
Development of Barretts from GERD is not currently considered to be due to a genetic proclivity, however. Barrett's is a protective measure taken to protect the body from frequent acid and bile exposure which could otherwise destroy the integrity of the oesophagus. It's presence can therefore be deemed beneficial if there are no genes prevalent that could produce future malignancy.
If you wish to compare the possible continuum from reflux to cancer as a "disease", then, yes, Barrett's is an early step. The progression would be: Acid reflux, oesophagitis, Barrett's, Low Grade Dysplasia, High Grade Dysplasia, neoplasia, adencarcinoma. And the first steps along that progression are slower than the later steps - but it is not a definitve progression. For most people it stops at Barrett's. But the development of Barrett's can occur at any time if the conditions prevail. I have known children diagnosed with Barretts. And when older people are diagnosed, it's usually impossible to say how long they had it - whether it's newly acquired or been sitting protectively in the background for years. (I suspect I fall into that latter category. I didn't know I had Barrett's untl 22 years ago but suspect I probably had it for at least 20 years prior to that discovery. )
A common scenario, described to me by an epidemilogist who curates the UK Barrett's registry, is for someone in their twenties to have been used to getting heartburn (perhaps on nights out drinking or eating too much of the wrong foods) when they see nothing sinister in the symptoms. A few years later they are not noticing the heartburn and may even think it's gone away (if they think about it at all) . What's possibly happened is Barrett's cells are now protecting them from the burning sensation. It may be 20 years later that they start noticing problems again, perhaps accompanied by swallowing difficulties that may lead to them seeking medical advice. That could be the start of adenocarcinoma. (This model also explains why the greatest prevalence for oesophageal cancer is amongst middle-aged men. ) If diagnosed with cancer, prognosis is typically 6 weeks. That's why it's important to identify those with Barrett's.
But there is no truth that if you're not diagnosed with Barrett's, you won't develop it later.
There is so much information out there it's important to know the source of the material. There are many websites that just propound some irresponsible quack's unproven theories which many find appealing for various reasons. In contrast, serious research findings don't produce eye-catching web pages.
(I attempt to distil any relevant information from latest research and maintain an archive of the most relevant research links on the BarrettsWessex org uk website (under News / research) for anyone interested. )